The Trendline – Westchester – July 2022
The MLS dropped its June listings data today. Westchester prices continued their relentless march upward. New listings were up a smidge month over month, but on a rolling 12 month average, they were down dramatically. Inventory is around the 2.1 month mark and days on market continued at about 10 days. Trendline says → super sellers’ market continues.
Months supply for Westchester was up a whole month on a month over month basis, but the 12 month rolling average shown in this graph is still dismal. If nothing else hits the market, Westchester will run out of houses to sell in 2.1 months with the rolling 12 month average graph telling us we're trending in the wrong direction.
New listings are up a bit from 35 to 44 month over month, but in a community with something like 10,000 homes, 44 listings is crazy! The graph to the right shows the numbers on a rolling 12 months average. Although the month over month number was up, the rolling average tells the bigger story of people just not wanting to sell. Apparently Westchester home owners haven't yet received the memo that people in other parts of the country are listing. We are way, way below pre-pandemic levels.
The median days on market stat is holding steady around 10 days. This mean that half the homes on the market are in contract faster than 10 days and half are on the market longer. It appears that some less desirable listings linger because the average days on market is 18 up from 16, but the desirable houses go fast!
The month over month median price increased from $1.75M to $2.03M, but with so few listings sold, one or two aberrations might distort the number, so I prefer to show the rolling 12 month average in this graph. A rolling 12 month average smooths out the bumps and shows that prices in Westchester have been on a consistent journey up with the median price over the last 12 months sitting at $1.5M. Kentwood's median price on a rolling 12 month average is a hair over $1.9M, by contrast.
Interest rates are all anybody wants to talk about right now. Will higher rates impact the price story in Westchester? There is still so much demand and Westchester still represents a big bang for the buck in Silicon Beach. My prediction is that demand may soften but it's not going to evaporate. Excess demand supports a continuing strong sellers' market.
There is also a good amount of housing stock in Westchester held by older owners. I'm still wondering why they aren't more motivated to move with the passage earlier this year of Prop 19, which allows them to take their low tax basis to another CA property. The provisions kicked in April 1st for the 55+ crowd. Maybe owners haven't yet got that memo?
Westchester CA 90045 Home Sellers
What does this trendline mean for Westchester home sellers? In a nutshell, your home will still be snapped up if listed right now.
Think you will make more money if you undertake costly renovations first? Maybe not. I’m still seeing crazy prices paid for fixers. The other reason not to renovate is the time it will take. Right this minute, with so few other sellers on the market, is your chance to get the highest price for your property.
As more sellers list over time, there will be more choices for buyers and prices will soften. That means you might not get your expected return on any renovation investment.
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Westchester CA 90045 Home Buyers
If you’re a Westchester home buyer, it continues to be tricky for you. You need an extra experienced local agent who has a local network for scouting off-market or coming soon listings, so you can get in early and hopefully scoop up a great property without getting into a bidding war.
Pro tip #1 for Westchester home buyers: don’t use the listing agent to submit your offer. That agent will not be super motivated to support your best interests. You will likely be one of multiple buyers they represent on the property. You want an advocate who will fight for you and somebody who knows what questions to ask to help you craft an offer that will stand out and succeed.
Pro tip #2 for Westchester home buyers: you definitely will want to have your lender pre-approval in hand and you’ll need to pack your patience and maybe even consider adjacent areas. Definitely don’t expect much in the way of concessions for repairs.
Pro-tip #3 for Westchester home buyers: With the median price sprinting up by leaps and bounds, you will want to make a list of your non-negotiable needs in a property and be ready to pounce on the first property that matches enough or your criteria. Waiting is getting more expensive by the month.
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All graphs presented herein show data for the last five years on a rolling 12-month average to smooth the bumps. The data shown is also for single-family homes. If you want condo or combined data for Westchester 90045, or custom graphs for other areas, just ask!